Holy Roman Empire

Chapter 455: All Are Acting

The British’s small moves did not escape the notice of the Austrian ambassador to Portugal, who immediately relayed the information back to Vienna. This time, it was the Austrian government’s turn to be dumbfounded, completely unaware of what had suddenly provoked the British.

The South African crisis was merely a potential threat. At the moment, Austria was busy managing newly acquired territories and had no intention of provoking the British.

Recently, the colonial minister, Josip Jelačić, had retired with honors, and his duties were currently being handled by the acting colonial minister, Stephen.

Stephen was something of a legendary figure. During Austria’s colonial expansion, he had been temporarily appointed as the mayor of Neubruck while still a lieutenant colonel in the army, which marked the start of his rapid rise.

He served successively as the Governor-General of West Africa and Congo and was later recalled to Vienna to serve as the deputy minister of the colonial ministry. After Josip Jelačić’s retirement, Stephen took over the ministry’s leadership.

After so many years of development, the Colonial Ministry was no longer the once-dispensable branch it had been, but rather a department with real power, second only to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ministry of Finance, and Ministry of Defense.

Colonial Minister Stephen explained, “Your Majesty, we have verified that recently, we have not had any major conflicts with the British in Africa. Just last month, our Governor-General in West Africa had discussions with the British about their colonial outposts in the region. The negotiations made significant progress and are currently focused on the issue of price.”

Clearly, the current Anglo-Austrian South African crisis was not instigated by the Austrian colonial government. The colonial officials were not foolish. If they were to target South Africa, they would not do it now.

Wouldn’t it be better to wait until the railroads were completed and then make a move on South Africa?

Moreover, since conflicts in West Africa could be resolved through negotiations, why couldn’t the same be true for South Africa?

There might be war hawks within the government, but no one was eager to make an enemy of the British. This opponent might be easy to deal with on land but it would be the opposite if it were on sea.

In West Africa, tensions over gold mines had persisted for decades. Austria had gradually dealt with the Dutch, Portuguese, and French, not through force but because the gold mines were nearly exhausted.

More precisely, the gold mines in various countries’ controlled areas, which were discovered and deemed worth exploiting, had been almost entirely mined out.

Without economic benefits and lacking strategic value, the remaining issues naturally became easier to handle. When it comes to colonies, as long as the price is right, they can be sold.

If someone offered a high enough price, Franz wouldn’t hesitate to sell a few colonies. Austria’s colonies scattered across the globe totaled over 17 million square kilometers, many of which held little value.

It’s clear from the level of attention given. Franz prioritized African colonies not because they were rich or strategically vital, but because they were close and had significant development potential.

The regions in Asia and the Americas might have better natural conditions, but their distance meant that the Austrian government’s control over those areas was weak.

Transoceanic telegraph lines were still being laid, and until instant communication could be guaranteed, the Austrian government had to grant autonomy to its colonies.

As long as profits were reaped, that was enough. Currently, apart from the strategically important Central American colonies, which served as a weapon to restrain the Americans, other regions were primarily for economic gain.

A tragic case like Alaska requires Austria to sink money into it every year. Franz even casually claimed a few uninhabited islands near Canada, intending to annoy the British.

Foreign Minister Wessenberg analyzed, “Based on the intelligence we’ve gathered, the British actions are quite peculiar. If they manage to win over the Portuguese, they can indeed dominate South Africa.

In reality, although there is no formal alliance, the British and Portuguese have been aligned on the South African issue for some time. Our rapid expansion has made the Portuguese very wary, and they have often sided with the British.

However, getting them to openly oppose us is another matter. The Portuguese would not be so foolish.

Even if they do manage to drive us out of South Africa, it will only be temporary. Once relations are fully severed, not even British support can protect Portuguese colonies in Africa.

If we wish, we can even end the Portuguese colonial empire at any time. Given this context, I don’t believe the Portuguese would dare to challenge us openly.

What we can figure out, the British can too. Attempting something they know is impossible suggests there might be more to this than meets the eye.”

Wessenberg had identified an issue, and Franz had too. The problem was they didn’t know what it was that made the British act this way.

It’s not impossible to win over the Portuguese. If the benefits were substantial enough, the Portuguese might be tempted.

However, Franz doubted the British would be willing to offer such substantial benefits. Moreover, even if the British did make such promises, would the Portuguese trust them?

Not to boast, but these days, British credibility is only slightly better than that of the Russians.

Portugal, being one of the oldest colonial powers, is familiar with these tricks. Fooling them would not be easy.

Could it be that the gold reserves in South Africa have been revealed, prompting the British to act recklessly, even risking a confrontation with Austria?

Franz quickly dismissed this thought. Identifying gold reserves isn’t easy. Even discovering a few gold mines or even the Rand Gold Field, wouldn’t be enough to make the British take such a risk.

It’s not that the Rand Gold Field lacks allure; it’s just that no one would believe the estimates. Sixty thousand tons of gold reserves would be considered a joke. There is a big question mark over whether the total amount of gold mined worldwide even adds up to that much.

With the exploration and mining technology of the time, the best estimate would be around 2,000 to 3,000 tons of reserves, no more than that.

Over 95% of the gold mines that would be valuable in later times weren’t worth mining in the current era. Even many rich mines weren’t economically viable due to the natural conditions.

Otherwise, the gold in West Africa wouldn’t have been nearly exhausted in just a few decades. It wasn’t that the gold mines were empty, but that the economically viable ones had been mined out.

Since it’s not about gold, it can’t be about diamonds either. At that time, diamond prices hadn’t skyrocketed yet.

Most people were still concerned about basic survival and couldn’t afford such luxuries. The wealthy were not easily swayed and did not hold diamonds in high regard.

“Keep a close watch on the British movements, not just in Africa but in any area where our interests are at stake. We must remain vigilant.

Whatever the British are planning, find a way to sabotage it. Since they are trying to win over Portugal, we’ll have our people disrupt their efforts.”

Unable to figure out the British intentions, Franz decided to stop pondering and focus on sabotage instead. There’s always the possibility that this might be a feint from the British and their target was someone else.

Franz himself had used such tactics before, releasing a mix of real and false information to mislead the enemy. If they followed these deceptive leads, they would fall into the trap. It’s better to respond with flexibility than to be led by the nose.

Even if the British and Portuguese do join forces, it would at most cause Austria some temporary setbacks in South Africa. Any losses could be recovered within three to five years, and Austria’s core interests would remain unaffected.

…

In Lisbon, the British and Austrian envoys were both actively working, and the atmosphere within the Portuguese government had become tense.

It was a difficult decision. If Britain and Austria were to go to war directly, Portugal would naturally side with the British.

After all, France and Spain would block Austria on land, and the British Royal Navy would dominate the seas, making it impossible for Austria to reach Portugal.

Unfortunately, the conflict was confined to the colonies, far from escalating into a full-scale war. Taking sides now would be risky.

Supporting either side would offend the other. While neither major power could decisively defeat the other, they both had the means to retaliate against Portugal.

The government’s tense atmosphere soon spread to the public. Many people understood that Portugal’s fate hung in the balance.

Portugal was now divided into two factions. Generally, more people supported the British, but Austria’s demands were lower and the risks smaller.

Austria only required Portugal to remain neutral and not directly engage in the great powers’ conflict, which garnered support from the neutral faction. The two sides were now evenly matched.

As an overseas trader, Rostón was also very concerned about international politics. Watching Britain and Austria each try to outmaneuver the other, he had even canceled his recent long-distance shipping ventures.

There were plenty of opportunities to make money, but not now. Going to sea in such a tense time was too risky—what if they encountered pirates?

No doubt, if the Portuguese government mishandled the situation, the likelihood of encountering pirates would greatly increase.

Such was the integrity of the great powers: if they disliked you, they’d stab you in the back. Both Britain and Austria were world empires, and avoiding their influence was nearly impossible.

For safety reasons, Portuguese merchant ships had significantly reduced their voyages recently. Coastal trade was still feasible, but everyone was extremely cautious about long-distance trade.

Being plundered by pirates offered a chance of survival but if they were unlucky enough to be raided by a navy, it would be a death sentence.

Pirates, needing repeat customers, usually spared the lives of merchants. However, when a navy committed robbery, they would eliminate all witnesses to maintain their reputation.

Of course, typically, navies wouldn’t stoop to piracy, but the occasional bad apples could arise.

It was a risk not worth taking, especially given the dubious morals of both Britain and Austria. If a ship set sail only to have the government take a side and provoke enemy retaliation, they would be in great danger.

In this era, over a thousand ships would encounter misfortune annually, and more than two hundred would go missing. Long-distance trade was truly high-risk.

Just as Rostón arrived at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs building, he ran into an old friend. He didn’t need to ask to know they were all concerned about the Anglo-Austrian conflict.

“Julian, how’s the situation?”

Rostón asked eagerly, knowing that if this dragged on, they would miss the best season for long-distance voyages. In this era, with sail-powered ships, monsoon winds were a crucial factor.

Julian shook his head and teased, “Still no result. Those officials are still bickering as if Portugal’s stance is really that important.”

Rostón, sharing the sentiment, replied, “Damn bastards, if this keeps up, we’ll be eating dirt this year!”

The Portuguese bourgeoisie had long been dissatisfied with the government. Despite King Luís I implementing some reforms, he still failed to satisfy the capitalists.

Now, the government’s hesitation had further fueled the capitalists’ discontent. To most capitalists, taking a side now seemed ridiculous.

Although both Britain and Austria were trying to woo Portugal, the problem was that weren’t very serious about it and weren’t offering much.

Given this, why risk taking sides? Why not remain neutral? Involvement in the Anglo-Austrian conflict could easily lead to severe consequences.

Thinking this way was fine, but acting on it was another matter. Portugal had long since declined significantly, and their ability to retain large colonies depended on a diplomatic strategy of playing both sides.

Luís I wanted to declare neutrality and stay out of the Anglo-Austrian conflict, but it wasn’t solely his decision to make.

The British were unwilling to let go, and Austria wanted to see what Britain’s true intentions were. So, the Portuguese government had no choice but to continue playing along.

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