The Nebula's Civilization

Chapter 117: Poker Player

“What are you gonna do if you keep the apostle safe? Is an apostle like some soybean paste to ferment?”

“But…”

Sung-Woon knew that it was most common for the players of The Lost World to have a conservative play style. That wasn’t a problem in itself.

A match of The Lost World was long, and due to that, the emotional aftereffect of losing was big, and the desire to win great.

Playing safe was the obvious choice. But Sung-Woon believed being moderate was important at all times.

Eldar asked what he meant.

“What I’m saying is a player’s style could be divided into two—high risk high return, and low risk low return.”

Eldar nodded.

“Then let’s say there are two poker players at about the same level of skill, but one chases big benefits even though it may be risky, and the other plays it safe and seeks only small benefits.”

“Okay.”

“As they continue to play poker, which of the two do you think would win?”

Eldar blinked.

“Is that a question with an answer?”

“Yes.”

“You said they have the same abilities… So wouldn't it be a tie?”

Sung-Woon stayed silent for a moment.

“I did say it has an answer, but it’s just a simple quiz. There’s no need to overthink it.”

“So a tie isn’t an option?”

“It isn’t.”

Eldat hesitated and then said, “I do think you’re going to say I’m wrong if I say the conservative player will win…”

“It doesn’t really matter, but there’s no need to give an answer that you don’t understand yourself, is there?”

“...Wouldn’t the person who played safe win in the end? I’ve barely played poker, so I don’t really know much about it. Still, I do think I’ve seen quite a few cases where players lose after making an extreme bluff…”

As if he had been waiting for that, Sung-Woon replied, “The player who takes risks wins.”

Eldar seemed to have expected the response.

Sung-Woon then shamelessly urged Eldar, “What are you doing? Hurry and ask why.”

“...Why is that?”

Sung-Woon replied, “Playing safe is noticeable.”

“What?”

“Cards are continuously rotated in poker, so there’s no way to know what cards I’ll get, what the opponent will get, and whether I have a better hand than them. But if one chooses to play safe, what do you think will happen?”

“They would be read.” Eldar nodded. “But Nebula, in my opinion, wouldn’t that be the same for a player who insists on risky play? If someone keeps insisting on raising the bet even though they have a bad hand, wouldn’t they also be read?”

“Yes, they would. But right now, they’re against someone who plays safely.”

“Yes, so?”

“Then the person who chooses to play safe wouldn’t respond to the risky play. Because if their opponent really does have a better hand, they would be in trouble.”

Eldar’s eyebrows furrowed. “You’re not making a play on words, are you?”

“Did you even hear my explanation with those pointy ears?”

Eldar grabbed the tip of their ears and said, “That’s only how they look.”

Sung-Woon then added, “Anyway, that’s how the game called poker is made. Someone playing safe may keep raising to follow their opponent, but if they get a bad hand and end up making a call instead, they’ll be exposing the cards they have. That’s what playing safe is. Of course, you should also keep in mind the possibility of that being a trick itself, but that’s not what I’m talking about right now.”

Eldar thought for a moment.

Eldar didn’t have much experience playing poker, but applied to other games, Sung-Woon’s explanation didn’t seem inaccurate. In other words, playing safe meant missing even obvious opportunities, and risky play meant catching an opportunity after several tries.

“Hm, so what you’re saying is that poker is a game designed to be more advantageous to players who play risky than safe, right?”

“Huh? No,” Sung-Woon replied. “Most games are like that. At least for games where there are uncertain variables and thus a need to predict and calculate probability.”

“If that’s true…why is that?”

Sung-Woon tilted his head as if he was questioning why Eldar would be asking such an obvious question.

“Because that’s more fun.”

“Oh.”

Sung-Woon continued to say, “But I’m not saying that you should play risky.”

“Right, you said moderately. May I ask what’s the standard for that?”

Sung-Woon immediately replied, “That’s a difficult question.”

“As expected.”

“Wouldn’t the process of getting to know that be the process of improving your skills in the game?”

Eldar then realized why Sung-Woon had sent Lakrak to the capital of Danyum by himself. As Eldar saw it, it was a dangerous move.

Of course, Sung-Woon fortunately knew that the five allies had been having frequent meetings lately. Lunda was a part of the meetings, so of course he would know. Due to it being part of a separate system, however, Lunda was unable to contact Sung-Woon in the meantime; Sung-Woon thus didn’t know when the meeting would end, or if all five of them were in attendance.

‘If Crampus hadn’t attended today’s meeting?’

Generally, players tended to stay at places where they could observe the important locations of their territory, such as the capitals.

When Lakrak appeared, Crampus would have released his creations and used lots of Faith points, which could put Lakrak in danger. And in the extreme case of losing Lakrak, that would be too great of a loss for Sung-Woon.

Therefore, Eldar considered the decision a gamble, and compared to the risk, the return seemed pretty low. A high risk and low return gamble. Eldar thought so because Crampus’s main troops weren’t in Deimerit, the capital of Danyum.

‘Of course, breaking down the king’s castle in the capital and killing the king is pretty much the same as the checkmate move that would collapse a country.’

However, in The Lost World, if a war broke out, the real conductor would be the god, not the king. As long as the principle of causality was present, it was true that it would be more efficient for a god to place an authority like a king to pass down their commands, but that didn’t mean an existing army would just fall victim to an unexpected catastrophe. The army of thirty thousand Sung-Woon had to face remained where they were.

Regardless, Sung-Woon explained his strategy and said that although it was dangerous, it was a necessary move for victory.

And Sung-Woon agreed with Eldar’s thought after the explanation.

“That’s true.”

“Then it is in fact an impractical gamble.”

.

“Hm, well, the risk is high, but the return isn’t low.”

“Is there another gain I didn’t think of?”

Sung-Woon replied, “There’s many, but firstly, it’s now revealed that I’m not a user who plays the orthodox way, right? That in itself is a gain.”

“What?”

“Think about it.”

Sung-Woon tapped on the temple area of his mask with his index finger.

“Everyone sits around a table and plays poker. They all check the chips they have and then the cards they receive. They look at their cards and think it’s not bad. They think it would be okay for them to check the next card. So everyone would call. But suddenly, the last person stands up and says they’re all-in. What would you do?”

“What about the cards in my hand?”

“They’re okay.”

“...I can’t lose all my money in the first round, so I would probably fold.”

Sung-Woon nodded.

“That’s reasonable.”

“Whew.”

Sung-Woon then asked the next question.

“But what if the guy who suddenly stood up keeps going all-in for all five rounds, even though their hands are just average? What would you do?”

“...Huh?” Eldar stared into the distance for a moment. “Is that possible?”

“What part?”

Eldar said, “Well, didn’t that person go all-in because they had good hands?”

“You don't know that. There is a possibility that the person had gotten good enough hands that they would be confident in winning for all five rounds, but that’s the wrong way to think about it. They might have bluffed a few times, and they might have even been bluffing the whole time.”

“Then…” After thinking about it, Eldar replied, “I would fold until I get cards with a high chance of winning.”

Sung-Woon shrugged.

“That’s not a very good choice.”

“Is that so?”

“That kind of person would make the other players conflicted. There could be some who wait until they get a good hand to go against that person, and if that person goes all-in again, some might just go with it regardless of what cards they have. However, having more chips is advantageous in poker. That all-in player would have received the small bets gained from the others calling and folding in the meantime, thus creating a gap between them and the other players. And after that, that player would be able to start at an advantageous point even without going for such an extreme strategy.”

Eldar nodded.

“So what you did was also…”

“Not to the extent of an all-in,” Sung-Woon said. “I’m just saying I did it because it seemed worth trying.”

***

Wisdom sent Crampus a simple message of consolation and told him he should be more cautious about his preparations for war, and about Lakrak moving alone.

“I didn’t know Nebula would go this far. Using an apostle for assassination was predictable, but Black Scale doesn’t have any other strategy resources like Lakrak. Normally, a player wouldn’t use an apostle in this way unless they had a backup apostle.”

Crampus got over the mental shock relatively easily.

“He did overdo it. The royal family wasn’t wiped out, and the castle wasn’t completely destroyed either. The chain of command is still fine, and the army of thirty thousand remains as they were.”

Of course, the damage done was a lot worse than what Crampus had described. Lakrak the apostle had exerted a divine punishment, and even the god of the Satyrs was unable to prevent that. Many people were saying that Lakrak had struck Deimerit like lightning.

As numerous rumors spread, fear of Black Scale grew. And because of that, the other countries were agitated. Aside from Asbestos, where a civil war had already begun and driven the country into a mess, the players of Golden Eye, Red Fruit, and even Mangul had to keep giving revelations for the sake of internal control. Players like AR1026 even had to send their creations as guardians.

The five allies decided to stop having meetings during the war, which they had regularly held to share news with each other in the beginning. And Lunda was bewildered to see this happen.

‘Is it okay to do so? It’s true that the meeting itself has become a weakness, but don’t we meet regularly to bring the alliance together? It’s not my place to say, but it’s likely the meetings were also meant to prevent betrayal. We agreed that our number one concern was the collapse of the alliance, didn’t we?’

Everyone was fretting, trying to settle the situation that Lakrak had created, but in Lunda’s perspective, problems seemed to arise once they all became more attached to their capitals out of worry that Lakrak would attack them.

‘Of course, it’s a relief that I personally have less to worry about now.’

Lunda’s heart was slowly leaning toward Sung-Woon and away from the five allies.

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