The Fox of France

Chapter 321: Winds of Change

Talleyrand's suggestion caught Juan completely off guard. Therefore, Juan felt it necessary to express to Talleyrand that he would need to conduct further research on this matter back in his homeland.

As he escorted Ambassador Juan out, Talleyrand mentioned, "Ambassador Juan, I won't keep it from you. As you're aware, in our country, not long ago, we successfully developed the steam locomotive. Its carrying capacity rivals that of ships, and in some aspects, it surpasses them. If we gain control of the Panama region, we intend to invest there and construct a railway connecting the Atlantic and Pacific. Such a railway is bound to be highly profitable. Consider this, presently, there's a scarcity of whales in the Atlantic. To hunt them, one must venture to the Pacific, to the White Sea. And to reach the Pacific, one must navigate around the Magellan Strait, circumvent the entirety of the Americas, significantly increasing the time and cost of transporting whale oil back.

Furthermore, the Magellan Strait is perilous, with numerous ships capsizing there annually, adding significantly to costs. If we establish a railway from the east to the west coast of Panama, the scenario changes entirely. Various Pacific goods could traverse from here, saving substantial costs alone. Controlling such a railway means whale oil from the White Sea, copper and nitrates from Peru, all passing through here. Ambassador, would you consider investing in this?"

Upon returning to the embassy, Ambassador Juan promptly began drafting a report. He meticulously transformed the document into a ciphered version, despite its near futility, as Juan remained unaware.

While Spain hadn't responded yet, new information reached Napoleon's ears.

"What? How can the Spanish be so obtuse? I remember, we were quite restrained, we only sold them some civilian weapons! Lucien, are you sure this information is accurate? No mishaps?"

"Absolutely certain. No issues. Our intelligence saw it firsthand. Napoleon, don't mistake the Spanish army for the French! Especially, don't equate Spain's colonial forces with France's. They're not on the same level. Additionally, in Mexico, the Spanish forces still use weaponry and tactics similar to our adversaries encountered in Valmy. They're a generation behind.

On the rebel side, they've bought civilian guns from Louisiana. Though civilian, these are genuine new-model rifled guns. Their morale isn't comparable. It's a mismatch! I think, if you were..."

Unfortunately, that was nearly twenty days ago. No word if Mexico City remained in Spanish hands." Lucien remarked.

"Me? Heh..." Napoleon chuckled, not bothering to counter Lucien seriously. In matters of military strategy, Napoleon dismissed debating with Lucien entirely. Regarding dealing with amateurs, Napoleon always admired a quote from Joseph: 'For instance, someone tells me, 'Your melon, the explosives you use aren't good, you should use black powder, not nitrocellulose, and it's better to add some lime, sand, or something to increase the potency.' I won't argue with him, even if I just glance at him, that's my defeat."

"In theory, the rebels lack heavy artillery, almost no siege capability. Taking Mexico City won't be that easy. But... Joseph, you're a defense expert, what's your plan to hold onto Mexico City at this time?" Napoleon suddenly turned to his elder brother.

"Hold Mexico City? Hold onto what? In this situation, what's there to hold onto? If it were me, I'd immediately pack up, blow up all the cannons, gather our people, and rush to Veracruz! The rebels may lack heavy weapons, but, Napoleon, let me ask you, do you think, at this point, the defenders of Mexico City still have the will to fight?"

"If they had the will to fight, they wouldn't have been thrashed by the rebels, who were outnumbered five to one in the previous skirmish! Even with weapon disparity, it shouldn't have been this bad."

"Is the situation in Mexico City stable? No surprises brewing?" Joseph inquired.

"Heh, Mexico City is mostly Creoles. Who they stand with isn't a question." Napoleon chuckled, "Joseph, your insight is spot on. At this time, the best course is to retreat to Veracruz. But making a split-second decision to flee, Joseph, that's truly your style."

"This isn't fleeing, it's repositioning!" Joseph countered, "Throughout history, no matter how fortified a stronghold, if there are internal issues, it's untenable. So, Monsieur Montesquieu advised us, 'In war, geographical advantage outweighs meteorological advantage, while internal unity within the army is even more critical than geographical advantage.' Today, the rebels are evidently more united, and they have superiority in both numbers and equipment. Shouldn't we run? Wait to be led to the guillotine?"

"Joseph, the Spaniards are fond of guillotines now and then. They're quite traditional, still using gallows," Lucien remarked.

"The effect isn't as good as the guillotine!" Joseph smirked. That was true. If given a choice between the gallows and the guillotine, theoretically, the guillotine was slightly more comfortable.

"So, if they retreat, what happens next?" Napoleon inquired.

"It's hard to say." Joseph shook his head, "If that priest..."

"Father Idalgo," Lucien reminded.

"Yes." Joseph nodded and continued, "If Father Idalgo underwent special training in Toulon and had ample preparation time, those Spanish riff-raff wouldn't even be worth mentioning. But Father Idalgo only received theological training, not military. His supporters lack basic military prowess. From the intelligence about this battle, they essentially won using guerrilla tactics. But initially, they tried to form dense formations like militia, nearly crumbling under Spanish artillery. If they hadn't disobeyed orders, attacked on their own, fired randomly, it's hard to say who would've won. Ultimately, the rebels' military tactics are severely lacking. Their luck played into meeting these endearing Spaniards.

However, that's not their most critical issue. If they don't war, fine, the Spaniards won't either. They have ample time to learn in the war. But they have a more significant problem: their rapid organizational expansion. Lucien, I recall your intelligence on those Mexicans in the past. It seems Father Idalgo truly started building his organization only a few months ago.

And our revolutionary padre hasn't received professional training on organizational development; he treats building the revolutionary organization as missionary work, indiscriminately accepting everyone. His rapid expansion means he couldn't prepare enough cadre, resulting in the inclusion of many unreliable individuals. Moreover, I believe Father Idalgo is better suited as a propagandist, not at the helm of a revolution.

Hence, Father Idalgo's forces will soon occupy Mexico City. But what happens after occupying Mexico City is crucial. Those who joined his forces have their own motives and goals. Whether Father Idalgo can quickly discipline and educate his forces is key. If he can manage swiftly, the Spaniards should contemplate an honorable exit from North America.

But if Father Idalgo fails in this, the Spaniards might just have a glimmer of hope."

"Do you think he'll succeed?" Napoleon asked.

"I doubt it. Because there's an obvious flaw in what they learned at the 'Revolutionary Theological Institute.' Of course, this flaw was intentionally guided by us," Lucien interjected. "Those educated in the 'Revolutionary Theological Institute' believe they can persuade others with reason. That's normal since many among them haven't experienced revolutions. They lack an understanding of the brutality of revolution. We deliberately reinforced this notion. So... hehe... I estimate Father Idalgo will fumble when trying to stabilize his internal structure. It will cost him considerable time."

"Revolution isn't a dinner party, it's not literature, not painting or embroidery. It's not refined, leisurely, elegant, composed, restrained, patient, or humble. Revolution is upheaval, a violent action where one class overthrows another. If he can't decisively organize internally, the subsequent issues will indeed be troublesome," Joseph remarked.

"Perhaps they might face internal divisions and struggles. Moreover, their victory isn't due to organized unity but rather disobeying orders, acting on their own. This victory might encourage further insubordination, reducing their organization. In a way, this kind of victory sometimes is more detrimental than failure," Napoleon stated. "However, this works in our favor. If the Spaniards see no hope, they won't obediently comply with us. And when necessary, we just need to release certain information, likely dealing them a heavy blow. And they can't blame us."

They all burst into laughter together.

"It'll probably take a while for the Spaniards to receive this news. After all, they don't have fast communication ships. By then, they'll probably... hmm, I think our appetites can be even more substantial," Napoleon added.

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