Holy Roman Empire

Chapter 527: Unlucky Fool

Due to the agricultural crisis, farmers across Europe were having a tough time. Families with savings managed, but those without were forced to take on debt.

They grew their own food, so living expenses weren’t high. The biggest burden was government taxes. In most areas, agricultural taxes weren’t too heavy, so people found ways to scrape together what they needed, and if they couldn’t, they sometimes deferred payment.

Some countries even reduced or waived taxes or accepted goods in lieu of cash. Only a small number of farmers went bankrupt. Most managed to get by.

If the agricultural crisis had ended in 1873, it would have been nothing more than a brief episode, akin to a year of bumper crops leading to a drop in prices. It wouldn’t have been enough to shake the foundation of Europe’s small-scale farming economy.

However, this wasn’t likely to happen. In the spring of 1873, farmers once again eagerly threw themselves into production. In some countries and regions, the area under grain cultivation decreased, but in many others, it either remained the same or even increased.

This wasn’t because farmers were unaware of the low prices and poor returns from growing grain. It was simply that generations of tradition had made this method of farming the norm. If they didn’t plant grain, they didn’t know what else to grow.

Austria had taken relatively strong measures to reduce grain production capacity. Franz ordered state-owned agricultural companies to stop planting major grains and to switch entirely to cash crops.

If this order had been given a decade earlier, it might have been enough to help Austria through the agricultural crisis.

Unfortunately, times have changed. Many citizens had participated in land redemption, and over the years, the amount of state-owned farmland in Austria’s hands had dwindled to less than a third of the nation’s total arable land.

In pursuit of higher profits, agricultural companies rarely grew grain. Besides planting a small amount for their own consumption, they mainly grew cash crops.

These cash crops weren’t even sold outside the companies. Agricultural companies had their own processing plants and operated fully integrated agricultural businesses.

It wasn’t just the state-owned agricultural companies. Many of the major nobles were following the same development model. When it came to profit, everyone was quick to learn.

Everyone adjusted their farming methods in response to market demand, and this integrated agricultural approach was relatively less impacted by the agricultural crisis.

The Ministry of Agriculture had originally planned for a 5.2% to 8.6% decrease in grain production this year, but reality proved them wrong. Despite the government’s extensive propaganda efforts, urging citizens to reduce their grain cultivation, the data collected after the spring planting season told them they were too optimistic.

In the spring of 1873, Austria’s grain cultivation area only decreased by 1.3%, a result of the Austrian government’s minor adjustments.

The data might not be entirely accurate. In such a short time, the Austrian government couldn’t conduct a comprehensive survey, so these figures were based on sampling.

Franz didn’t believe the margin of error was significant. Even if the error was as high as double, that would still only be a 2.6% decrease, far short of the intended target.

If this was the outcome in Austria, one could imagine the situation in other countries. Franz doubted they were even reducing production. If they hadn’t increased their grain cultivation area, it was likely due to stronger government controls.

Franz was mentally prepared for the agricultural crisis to continue, and this was part of the Austrian government’s plan.

The strategy was to use the agricultural crisis to disrupt the agricultural production systems of various European countries, push for land consolidation, and create a large number of bankrupt farmers.

The Colonial Ministry had already made plans to accept ten million immigrants from the European continent over the next 15 years, providing labor for the development of Austrian colonies.

This was necessary because the German region had already sent most of those willing to emigrate, and Austria was in a similar situation.

From a peak of hundreds of thousands of emigrants each year, Austria now produced only about 40,000 to 50,000 emigrants annually, with the German Federal Empire contributing around 5,000 to 6,000, and other regions of Europe adding another 20,000 to 30,000.

Of course, the total number of emigrants from Europe each year was much higher, but not all of them would choose to settle in the Austrian colonies. The British, French, Dutch, Prussians, and Spanish were all competing for immigrants in Europe, as were various countries in the Americas.

With an annual influx of 70,000-80,000 immigrants spread across Austria’s 20 million square kilometers of colonies, it wouldn’t even create a ripple.

From this perspective, Franz’s idea of encouraging the German Federal Empire and Prussia to establish overseas colonies essentially meant competing with himself for immigrants.

Looking across European countries, Russia was the only one left with the potential to become a major source of immigrants. The potential of the German region had already been mostly exhausted.

The agricultural crisis had proven to be the best method. Alexander II’s extensive land reclamation solved the land issues for peasants.

However, the Russian government’s emancipation of the serfs had been too recent, and these people had not yet accumulated wealth before they encountered the agricultural crisis.

In terms of risk resistance, these newly landed Russian peasants, who still owed the government a huge debt, were undoubtedly the weakest.

The land had been newly reclaimed, with relatively lower yields. Russia’s natural environment was poor, with many areas able to support only one planting season, making grain cultivation costs high. Transportation constraints also made grain difficult to move, limiting its economic value.

It was estimated that the agricultural crisis of 1872 alone had caused tens of thousands of Russian peasants to go bankrupt. But such a small number of people couldn’t cause much of a stir. They were quickly absorbed by Russia’s industrial and commercial sectors.

As for absorbing immigrants, that was still a long way off. It would have taken a massive wave of bankruptcies, exceeding Russia’s industrial absorption capacity, for a significant outflow to occur.

Otherwise, going to Russia and competing with local Russian capitalists for labor would have been foolish. The local powers would have quickly taught you a lesson.

This plan did not include Austria itself. Although, with the times, land consolidation to reduce production costs had been the best choice, Franz had not been prepared to do this domestically.

In the face of stability, everything else had to take a back seat. A slow, gradual influence, like boiling a frog slowly, was the best choice. Directly causing farmers to go bankrupt to increase immigration was the worst strategy.

Franz put down the documents in his hand and looked at Holz, asking, “The grain reduction plan has failed. How does the Ministry of Agriculture plan to respond?”

Unable to reduce output, the only option was to increase consumption. Previously, the Austrian government had developed a plan to promote the livestock industry, which had already taken shape.

However, it hadn’t been able to grow significantly, mainly because the market’s purchasing power hadn’t caught up. Compared to the modern era, where the per capita meat consumption exceeded 100 kilograms, Austria had only reached one-third of that amount.

It wasn’t that people didn’t like eating meat. The problem was that their income was limited, so they simply couldn’t afford it. Being able to provide enough bread was already a significant achievement of the Austrian government’s reforms.

Franz’s promised plan to provide extra meals for students in compulsory education had already been implemented. After the decline in agricultural product prices, students were supplied with an additional 300 grams of pork each week.

With the addition of 550 grams of fish and 100 grams of either chicken or goose meat, this intake was sufficient to meet nutritional needs. If they continue to increase it, Austria might soon be producing a lot of overweight people.

The per capita meat consumption figure was actually a bit misleading, as it was usually averaged out. According to what Franz knew, the highest consumers of meat products in Austria were sailors and fishermen, followed by capitalists and nobility.

It wasn’t that sailors and fishermen were wealthier. It was mainly because obtaining meat products at sea was relatively easy. The cheapest item in their hands was often fish, and many times their staple food was also fish.

The meat consumption in coastal areas was higher than in inland regions. For example, in the port of Venice, the price of fish was less than one-tenth the price of beef, and fish was the main meat product for common people.

However, in inland areas, this price difference wasn’t as pronounced. Especially in the Hungarian plains, the price of beef was only five times that of fish, so the consumption of beef was relatively higher among the populace.

This “high” consumption was actually quite limited, and most people still couldn’t eat to their heart’s content. Even in Vienna, the most economically developed city, the annual per capita consumption of beef didn’t exceed 20 kilograms.

However, Vienna’s per capita consumption of meat products had surpassed 85 kilograms, ranking in the top five among all cities, significantly raising Austria’s average level.

From a cost perspective, increasing the amount of fishing was actually the cheapest way to boost the population’s meat consumption.

But many issues couldn’t be considered solely from a cost standpoint. The ripple effects had to be taken into account as well. Blindly increasing the supply of fish could overwhelm the domestic livestock industry, and that wasn’t a joke—it could really happen.

The reason could be summed up in one word: poverty. For most ordinary workers, price was the most important factor, and eating habits could be changed if necessary.

Minister of Agriculture Holz said, “Your Majesty, the Ministry of Agriculture plans to promote animal husbandry to increase grain consumption while also enriching the farmers’ diets.”

Franz caught the underlying implication: the livestock industry would be sacrificed. If animal husbandry increased significantly, overproduction in the livestock industry would be inevitable.

However, since farmers typically raised livestock on a small scale, if they couldn’t sell it, they would have to eat it themselves.

Overall, this meant artificially increasing grain consumption. Along the way, it would also drive down the price of meat products, increasing the population’s meat intake.

But in doing so, the farmers involved in animal husbandry would suffer. Their profits would inevitably be squeezed, and they might even lose money.

There was no way around it—someone’s interests would always be harmed. Compared to the widespread impact of agriculture, Austria’s livestock industry was much smaller, with even fewer large-scale operations.

This was only theoretically feasible. In practice, there were many issues to consider. After pondering for a moment, Franz shook his head and asked, “Has the Ministry of Agriculture conducted an in-depth investigation? From what I know, many farmers have a habit of raising livestock, especially poultry, which is even more widespread. Even if we promote it, would the farmers really be willing to use grain as feed?

For example, when raising geese, they can grow just fine on grass without any grain. The same goes for cattle and sheep. If it’s small-scale farming, grass alone could suffice.

In this case, while the production of meat products might increase, the consumption of grain might not necessarily rise. How does the Ministry of Agriculture plan to achieve its goals?”

Franz was not someone easily fooled. In his previous life, he had come from a rural background. When he was young, economic conditions were poor, and no one in his family used grain to feed chickens, cattle, or pigs.

Although this required more labor and extended the time for livestock to grow, everyone stuck with it.

Thinking from the farmers’ perspective, the economic conditions for Austrian farmers at this time weren’t much better. They had only been eating their fill for a few years, so saving grain was almost instinctual.

If economic conditions were better, the Ministry of Agriculture’s plan might not face much resistance. If all else failed, they could use the grain to brew alcohol.

Europeans consumed large amounts of beer and wine, while hard liquor consumption was low. Aside from Russia, most Europeans had little interest in hard liquor.

If this weren’t the case, Franz would have already used the grain to brew alcohol. Even if the market couldn’t absorb it in the short term, it could be stored for a long time, and the flavor would improve with age.

Unfortunately, beer, the most widely consumed, wasn’t suitable for long-term storage. Hard liquor could be stored, but there were no customers. The Russians also had a surplus of grain and had long been making their own, so they didn’t need to buy from others.

Given the current level of domestic consumption, Franz thought that burning the grain might be more cost-effective than using it on a large scale to brew alcohol. At least the losses might be less.

Minister of Agriculture Holz was dumbfounded. The carefully prepared plan had such a glaring flaw. If it were implemented, the agricultural crisis wouldn’t be resolved, and a livestock industry crisis would be triggered instead.

In this era of imperialism, what should be done if a crisis couldn’t be resolved? The most common method was to transfer it abroad. The reality was harsh. That was just how the great powers operated at this time.

Among the great powers, Austria was the most concerned with appearances. But in essence, Austria was still one of the great powers, and now that a crisis had arisen, the Austrian government would inevitably seek a scapegoat to bear the losses.

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